さまざまな可能性の中から最善の方法を選ぶというのは難しいことです。確率の問題に詳しいジョン・ヘイグが、確率論についての哲学的アプローチや、ガリレオ、ベイズ、ラプラス、ポワソン、マルコフらによる進展を概観します。確率分布のほか、科学や経済分野での応用例についても解説しています。
    

• Explores ideas of probability and the different philosophical approaches to it
• Provides a brief account of the history of development of probability theory
• Considers the work of some of the big players; from Galileo and Pascal to Bayes, Laplace, Poisson, and Markov
• Discusses a wide range of applications of probability theory in science, economics, and a variety of other contexts

  
Making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty - which is the norm - requires a sound appreciation of the way random chance works. As analysis and modelling of most aspects of the world, and all measurement, are necessarily imprecise and involve uncertainties of varying degrees, the understanding and management of probabilities is central to much work in the sciences and economics. 
  
In this Very Short Introduction, John Haigh introduces the ideas of probability and different philosophical approaches to probability, and gives a brief account of the history of development of probability theory, from Galileo and Pascal to Bayes, Laplace, Poisson, and Markov. He describes the basic probability distributions, and goes on to discuss a wide range of applications in science, economics, and a variety of other contexts such as games and betting. He concludes with an intriguing discussion of coincidences and some curious paradoxes.