The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf

ISBN : 9780199683796

Raphael A. Espinoza; Ghada Fayad; Prasad Ananthakrishnan
208 ページ
162 x 241 mm

The economies of the Arab states of the Gulf have gone through considerable changes in the last decade, spurred by high oil prices and ambitious diversification plans. Large-scale immigration provided the labour force while capital inflows and financial development leveraged oil wealth to finance diversification. The collapse in real estate prices around the world followed by the global crisis slowed growth and raised questions on the appropriateness of what has been dubbed the 'GCC model'. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have thus far managed to leverage their large natural resource wealth to achieve economic prosperity and finance social advances, and the region also emerged as an important source of funds for the other countries in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the GCC face several challenges. Productivity growth must increase to fully reap the benefits of investment. Jobs must be created for the nationals and the growing youth population. State intervention (which is prevalent, given that oil revenues accrue to the government) must become efficient and be used to diversify and modernize the economy. In addition, the recent crisis highlighted the importance of fiscal, monetary, and financial stability policies to manage macroeconomic cycles. This book analyses these issues and combines data and econometric analysis with theoretical discussions. It concludes with a discussion of the importance of the GCC for the wider region.


1. Introduction
2. The Determinants of Long-Term Growth in the GCC Countries
3. Macroeconomic Impact of Migration
4. Government Spending, Subsidies, and Economic Efficiency
5. Fiscal Policy for Macroeconomic Stability
6. Monetary Policy with a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime
7. Non-Performing Loans and Financial Stability
8. Financial Markets in the GCC Countries
9. A Conclusion on the Importance of the GCC for the Wider Region


Raphael Espinoza is an Economist in the Research Department at the IMF and an External Research Associate at the Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre), University of Oxford. He has written on development macroeconomics, the economics of resource-rich countries, and asset pricing, and has worked on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. at the IMF. He is an Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees and holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.; Ghada Fayad is an Economist in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department at the IMF and an External Research Associate at the Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre), University of Oxford. Her research focus is on development macroeconomics, and she has worked on Qatar and Saudi Arabia in her country assignments at the IMF. She previously worked as a Research Fellow at OxCarre, and at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. She holds a PhD in economics from the University of Oxford.; Ananthakrishnan Prasad is Deputy Division Chief in the GCC Division of the IMFs Middle East and Central Asia Department. He is currently the mission chief for Oman and Kuwait and has earlier led missions to Qatar. He has also participated in IMF missions to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Prior to this, he was an Advisor to Executive Director at the IMF Executive Board, representing India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. He has previously worked in the Reserve Bank of India on issues related to monetary policy, exchange rate management, and financial sector and debt management issues. His research focus is on international macroeconomics and financial markets. He holds a PhD in International Banking and Finance from the University of Bombay, a Masters in Commerce from the University of Bombay, and an MBA in Finance from the University of Pittsburgh.