ISBN : 9780198846802
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face.
This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
1 Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk: An Introduction to Uncertain Futures
Section I: The Nature of Expectations in Modern Political Economies
2 Robert Boyer: Expectations, Narratives, and Socio-Economic Regimes
3 David Tuckett: Conviction Narrative Theory and Understanding Decision-Making in Economics and Finance
4 Jenny Andersson: Arctic Futures: Expectations, Interests, Claims, and the Making of Arctic Territory
Section II: The Strange World of Economic Forecasting
5 Werner Reichmann: The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting
6 Olivier Pilmis: Escaping the Reality Test: How Macroeconomic Forecasters Deal with 'Errors'
7 Andrew G. Haldane: Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Modelling
Section III: The Role of Narratives and Planning in Central Banking
8 Douglas R. Holmes: A Tractable Future: Central Banks in Conversation with their Publics
9 Benjamin Braun: Central Bank Planning? Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Price of Bending the Yield Curve
Section IV: Constructing Futures in Finance
10 Elena Esposito: Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future
11 Natalia Besedovsky: Uncertain Meanings of Risk: Calculative Practices and Risk Conceptions in Credit Rating Agencies
Section V: Managing Expectations in Innovative Business
12 Martin Giraudeau: Processing the Future: Venture Project Evaluation at American Research and Development Corporation (1946-1973)
13 Liliana Doganova: Discounting and the Making of the Future: On Uncertainty in Forest Management and Drug Development
14 Timur Ergen: The Dilemma between Aligned Expectations and Diversity in Innovation: Evidence from Early Energy Technology Policies