ISBN : 9780198820802
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that, since dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty, they exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. The current microfoundations of standard economics cannot handle genuinely uncertain futures. Instead uncertainty requires an entirely new model of economic reasoning. This edited volume lays the foundations for this new model by showing how economic actors form expectations in conditions of uncertainty. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies that demonstrate the role of imaginaries, narratives, and calculative technol
1 Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk: An Introduction to Uncertain Futures
Section I: The Nature of Expectations in Modern Political Economies
2 Robert Boyer: Expectations, Narratives, and Socio-Economic Regimes
3 David Tuckett: Conviction Narrative Theory and Understanding Decision-Making in Economics and Finance
4 Jenny Andersson: Arctic Futures: Expectations, Interests, Claims, and the Making of Arctic Territory
Section II: The Strange World of Economic Forecasting
5 Werner Reichmann: The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting
6 Olivier Pilmis: Escaping the Reality Test: How Macroeconomic Forecasters Deal with 'Errors'
7 Andrew G. Haldane: Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Modelling
Section III: The Role of Narratives and Planning in Central Banking
8 Douglas R. Holmes: A Tractable Future: Central Banks in Conversation with their Publics
9 Benjamin Braun: Central Bank Planning? Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Price of Bending the Yield Curve
Section IV: Constructing Futures in Finance
10 Elena Esposito: Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future
11 Natalia Besedovsky: Uncertain Meanings of Risk: Calculative Practices and Risk Conceptions in Credit Rating Agencies
Section V: Managing Expectations in Innovative Business
12 Martin Giraudeau: Processing the Future: Venture Project Evaluation at American Research and Development Corporation (1946-1973)
13 Liliana Doganova: Discounting and the Making of the Future: On Uncertainty in Forest Management and Drug Development
14 Timur Ergen: The Dilemma between Aligned Expectations and Diversity in Innovation: Evidence from Early Energy Technology Policies
