Hurricane Climatology: A Modern Statistical Guide Using R

ISBN : 9780199827633

James B. Elsner; Thomas H. Jagger
390 Pages
162 x 236 mm
Pub date
Mar 2013
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Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms and they are becoming more powerful as the globe warms. Hurricane Climatology explains how to analyze and model hurricane data to better understand and predict present and future hurricane activity. It uses the open-source and now widely used R software for statistical computing to create a tutorial-style manual for independent study, review, and reference. The text is written around the code that when copied will reproduce the graphs, tables, and maps. The approach is different from other books that use R. It focuses on a single topic and explains how to make use of R to better understand the topic. The book is organized into two parts, the first of which provides material on software, statistics, and data. The second part presents methods and models used in hurricane climate research.


I Software, Statistics, and Data
1 Hurricanes, Climate, and Statistics
1.1 Hurricanes
1.2 Climate
1.3 Statistics
1.4 R
1.5 Organization
2 R Tutorial
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Data
2.2.1 Small amounts
2.2.2 Functions
2.2.3 Vectors
2.2.4 Structured data
2.2.5 Logic
2.2.6 Imports
2.3 Tables and Plots
3 Classical Statistics
3.1 Descriptive Statistics
3.2 Probability and Distributions
3.3 One-Sample Tests
3.4 Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test
3.5 Two-Sample Tests
3.6 Statistical Formula
3.7 Compare Variances
3.8 Two-Sample Wilcoxon Test
3.9 Correlation
3.10 Linear Regression
3.11 Multiple Linear Regression
4 Bayesian Statistics
4.1 Learning About the Proportion of Landfalls
4.2 Inference
4.3 Credible Interval
4.4 Predictive Density
4.5 Is Bayes Rule Needed?
4.6 Bayesian Computation
5 Graphs and Maps
5.1 Graphs
5.2 Time series
5.3 Maps
5.4 Coordinate Reference Systems
5.5 Export
5.6 Other Graphic Packages
6 Data Sets
6.1 Best-Tracks
6.2 Annual Aggregation
6.3 Coastal County Winds
6.4 NetCDF Files
II Models and Methods
7 Frequency Models
7.1 Counts
7.2 Environmental Variables
7.3 Bivariate Relationships
7.4 Poisson Regression
7.5 Model Predictions
7.6 Forecast Skill
7.7 Nonlinear Regression Structure
7.8 Zero-Inflated Count Model
7.9 Machine Learning
7.10 Logistic Regression
8 Intensity Models 211
8.1 Lifetime Highest Intensity
8.2 Fastest Hurricane Winds
8.3 Categorical Wind Speeds by County
9 Spatial Models
9.1 Track Hexagons
9.2 SST Data
9.3 SST and Intensity
9.4 Spatial Autocorrelation
9.5 Spatial Regression Models
9.6 Spatial Interpolation
10 Time Series Models
10.1 Time Series Overlays
10.2 Discrete Time Series
10.3 Change Points
10.4 Continuous Time Series
10.5 Time Series Network
11 Cluster Models
11.1 Time Clusters
11.2 Spatial Clusters
11.3 Feature Clusters
12 Bayesian Models
12.1 Long-Range Outlook
12.2 Seasonal Model
12.3 Consensus Model
12.4 Space-Time Model
13 Impact Models
13.1 Extreme Losses
13.2 Future Wind Damage
A Functions, Packages, and Data
A.1 Functions
A.2 Packages
A.3 Data Sets
B Install Package From Source

About the author: 

James B. Elsner is the Earl and Sophia Shaw Professor of Geography at Florida State University where he teaches applied spatial statistics and hurricane climatology. Dr. Elsner is President and CEO of Climatek; a company that develops software for hurricane-risk models. His research interests include the changing nature of hurricane risk. He has written more than 110 research articles and two books. Dr. Thomas Herbert Jagger is Vice President of Climatek and independent researcher. He has written more than 25 papers advancing the use of statistical analysis in weather and climate. As Vice president of Climatek he has incorporated Bayesian analysis and extreme value modeling into his research on hurricane climatology and hurricane risk analysis.

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